Champion Scaling and Late Game Strength

How this is measured

A weighted line is fitted to each champion's win rate minute by minute, and the slope is shown as points per 10 minutes. The baseline is exactly 50% at every minute, because every game writes five winners and five losers into the same duration bucket. Early means games that ended before minute 25, late means games that reached minute 35.

The shrinkage is measured, not chosen. Across the champions listed here the observed spread of slopes is 1.21 points and pure measurement noise accounts for 4.27, which leaves a real spread of 0.00 points. Each champion's slope is pulled towards zero in proportion to its own sample, so a thin sample cannot reach the top of the list.

3 champions were tested and 0 of them clear three standard errors. Values that do not clear it are printed faded: with this many champions, a two sigma rule would produce about eight false positives by chance alone. No slope clears the threshold in this bracket, so nothing on this page should be read as a claim.

Game length is an outcome, not a setting. A champion that wins early ends those games early, so most of its long games are games it was already losing. This curve therefore measures closing ability as well as raw strength: the late column answers "what happens if I reach minute 35 on this champion", not "how strong is this champion at minute 35".

Level 1 and laning strength are not measured here. The early column is about whole games that ended quickly, not about the first minutes; for lane by lane numbers see the counters page of each champion.